3 REASONS WHY UNC WILL WIN (AND 3 REAONS WHY THEY WON’T)

Okay, I think I’ve taken sufficient time to gloat this past weekend when the team I have as my favorite to win the NCAA Mens Basketball title slipped past Villanova on Saturday into the final. I do want to make it clear though that if the Tar Heels win it all, that I reserve the right to wallow in my brilliance for at least another year from atop my perch as March Madness Guru Extraordinaire.

But the Tar Heels still need to shore up a few mistakes before they trot onto the court in a couple of hours against the Spartans. Let’s not forget that compared to Michigan State, UNC has had a few scares on the way to the title game. I’m sticking by my guns (as all honorable winners do) and believe that the ‘Heels will pull through to give Tyler Hansbrough a bit of hardware to take with him to the NBA and here are three reasons why they will win:

1. Inside-Outside Game: Hansbrough is a legitimate inside threat who has given UNC more than a fair share of Tim Bebow-esque speeches in the locker room and in the media. After bowing out early in last year’s title run to Kansas, the Senior immediately informed the press and anyone who was listening that he would do everything within his power to get his team back to the finals. And here they are with a lethal inside presence and a backcourt with a shoot-first-ask-later mentality. If they get shut-down on the inside, Hansbrough and teammate Deon Thompson have only to pop the ball back outside to Ty Lawson, Danny Green or Wayne Ellington. They have been lethal throughout the tournament and hit the big shots when the ‘Heels need them most.

2. Ball Control: No one has been up to the task in a match up against Ty Lawson. Except for a few exceptions throughout the tournament, UNC has taken care of the ball, had minimal turnovers and has even defended the ball quite admirably considering their best defender Marcus Ginyard, has been unavailable during the tournament. If Lawson and Co. have a repeat of the same performance they had against Villanova, a team that pushed them all the way into the dying minutes of the second half, they will have great success against Michigan State tonight.

3. Attacking Style: UNC has shown a lot of pressure and when their defense holds, they cause turnovers and plenty of them. Their ability to throw a team’s rhythm off is initiated by Hansbrough’s awkward, yet relentless style of play and then opposing teams have to deal with the speed of Lawson and the consistency of guys like Ellington and Green. The conditioning on the UNC team is superb and they’ll need every ounce of courage, tenacity and grit to beat the Spartans.

3 REASONS WHY THEY’LL LOSE

1. Boards: UNC will have to rebound the ball better than they ever have this season if they hope to get second-chances on the offensive side of the court. The Spartans have a knack for rebounding (they are the best rebounding team in the nation) the ball and they are persistent and stubborn inside the key. If there is a ball in the air the Spartans will find it and the Tar Heels will have to limit their opportunities on the glass.

2. Defense: UNC was always a couple of three-pointers away from losing in the semi-final game against Villanova. If ‘Nova had hit just a handful of three’s throughout the game the outcome would have been much closer and a little more uncomfortable for the ‘Heels. UNC must find a way to stop penetration and guard the perimeter as if the championship depended upon it.

3. Inside-Outside Game: UNC’s strength can and will easily become their weakness against the Spartans. Raymar Morgan absolutely dominated the inside against UConn in their semi-final and the Spartans have their own speedy guard in Kalin Lucas, a guy who can take anyone off the dribble but also has a knack for finding the open man in transition and when the ‘tree’s are thick in the paint. If Lawson, Ellington and Green cannot stop the ball, Michigan State will end up the victors tonight.

Prediction: UNC by 8